Recently at BlizzCon, Blizzard announced Diablo 5. I felt somewhat disappointed, and I’m sure many oldbies felt the same. Social media was full of similar reactions.

It felt… wrong. Because it’s Blizzard. We still hope for that unmistakable passion for making great games, even as monetization takes a bigger role. I understand the shift, but it leaves me wistful.

But working on the business side of games, I know how much the market has changed. For a long time, Blizzard seemed cautious about monetization that might compromise what players loved. As a player, I appreciated that.

ARPGs can benefit from large communities for trading, parties and sharing builds. Free entry can help them grow, while revenue from paying players can fund seasons and expansions.

I also think Diablo 5 will play differently from Diablo 4. Lost Ark took the MMORPG route; Path of Exile 2 (PoE2) goes deeper into builds. D5’s setting—100 years after D4, with Hell victorious and no safe towns—suggests another possible direction: scavenging for supplies, extracting with loot, or building a base. I could see D5 borrowing from survival and extraction games while keeping ARPG combat and character progression at its core.

I explored why Blizzard announced D5 now, and who it’s for, in the full deck below:

1. Microsoft likely wants a clear roadmap for Diablo.

D5 targets spring 2029; announcing now can set expectations for players and management.

2. Diablo has to fight to remain the Coke of dark ARPGs.

PoE2 is emerging as its Pepsi—and unless Diablo moves quickly to defend its ‘overall’ lead, those roles could reverse. Across eight tracked Steam ARPGs, D4’s share of average concurrent players fell from 16% (Dec 2023–Nov 2024) to 12% (Sep 2025–Aug 2026), even as its own activity grew. That doesn’t tell the whole story beyond Steam, but it shows how competition is intensifying on a platform that could help Diablo reach new players beyond Battle.net’s aging core.

3. ARPGs have room for several winners serving different tastes.

Like third-person action games, the genre can support distinct niches. Grim Dawn, Last Epoch, and No Rest for the Wicked offer players different takes on combat and character building.

4. A sequel can grow a franchise without replacing the original.

In PoE2’s first year of early access, PoE1 and PoE2 together averaged 3.2 times as many concurrent Steam players as PoE1 had in the preceding year. PoE1’s activity fell, but combined activity grew. Different gameplay and monetization could let D4 and D5 coexist.

5. D5 could be Diablo’s doorway to a younger generation.

Immortal already offers free entry on mobile and PC. D5 could reach Gen Z and Gen Alpha on console and PC, including Steam. My hypothesis: free-to-play entry and new genre elements could help it become their defining dark ARPG for the next two decades, without losing Diablo’s identity.

Battle.net was once a stronghold: no Diablo game was on Steam until 2023. Blizzard now has to win ground beyond it. With Activision developing the next Halo, can Activision Blizzard help lead Xbox—and can Blizzard be the legendary developer it once was?

Full PDF

The full 45-slide deck includes sources.